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Economic Outlook

BoC to cut rates 5 times in 2024, starting in June: Royce Mendes

 

BNN Bloomberg

Economic outlook | March 27, 2024

Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss BoC's path forward. Mendes also discusses the labour and housing markets and how they will be impacted by economic slowdown.

 

Watch the video from BNN Bloomberg here.

Canadian business leaders say housing should be priority No. 1 in the federal budget

 

KPMG LLP

Economic outlook | March 27, 2024

SMBs say housing is the economy's biggest risk with solutions requiring public-private partnerships and innovative tax relief measures, a recent KPMG in Canada survey shows

TORONTO, March 27, 2024 /CNW/ - The overwhelming majority (94 per cent) of Canadian business leaders believe that housing should be the top priority in the upcoming federal budget, calling it the biggest risk to the economy, finds a recent survey by KPMG in Canada.

They expect the housing crisis will dampen economic growth this year, with nearly nine in 10 (87 per cent) saying the rising cost of living, driven largely by housing costs, is forcing their organization to pay more for labour and affecting their ability to attract and retain already-scarce talent.


"The ripple effects from the high cost of housing and lack of supply are being felt throughout the economy," says Caroline Charest, an economist and Montreal-based partner at KPMG in Canada. "New and young Canadians are being shut out from purchasing and are finding rentals scarce and costly. Those who were able to enter the market a few years back due to record low interest rates now face the risk of default when their rates reset at upwards of three times what they pay now. All this is weighing heavily on business leaders struggling to attract and retain key personnel and talent, particularly in urban areas that have witnessed the highest increases in the cost of housing and in regions where housing is scarce."

The survey finds that business leaders want to see more innovative public-private sector housing solutions, with nearly nine in 10 (89 per cent) saying public-private collaboration will be required.

However, the challenge for communities extends beyond housing to infrastructure and services that will be required to support population growth, says Chris Sainsbury, partner and National Leader for Smart Cities, KPMG in Canada, based in Vancouver.

"The central questions are, who are we building housing for, how will it be serviced, and how do we create cities and communities that we all want to live in?," he says.

Beyond tax policy and funding, the federal government does not have many levers and provincial and local governments are relatively limited in influencing actual construction rates, adds Vivian Chan, a Vancouver-based KPMG partner in the Global Infrastructure Advisory Group.

"Just doing more and doing it faster is not good enough," says Ms. Chan. "There needs to be a new model to deliver housing, one that brings all levels of government, not-for-profit associations, and the development community together. We have an opportunity to rethink and reshape how our cities and communities are built. But it requires governments to do something that's fundamentally different."

The primary concern from local governments is ensuring they have the resources today, and on an ongoing basis, to properly design and service a much-needed spike in new housing, she says.

"The reality is, most municipalities don't have the bandwidth or technology to cut through the complex steps to access the much-needed federal grant programs," Ms. Chan says. "It's not only about the amount of money available to kickstart building but the reliability and sustainability of the source of funding around all of the infrastructure that will be needed to support housing development."

 

Read the full article from KPMG here.

Weathering a freeze before the thaw

Deloitte.

Economic outlook | January 2024

Fashionably late, the economic impact of monetary tightening finally arrived in Canada toward the end of 2023. After a strong start to the year, household spending on goods and services stalled. And although business investment held up longer, spending dropped significantly in the third quarter. The only thing saving the economy from contracting more than the 1.1% registered in the third quarter was a surge in government spending and a modest rebound in residential investment.

As 2024 begins, the major wild card in the economic outlook continues to be interest rates and how households and businesses manage high borrowing and debt-servicing costs. While our baseline forecast shows that policymakers will be in a position to ease rates beginning this spring, sparking a recovery, it’s widely accepted that we won’t see a return to the ultra-low interest rates of the decade leading up to the pandemic.

What will this quarter’s economic outlook mean for spending and investment decisions in 2024? Find out in our January economic outlook.

Read the full article from Deloitte here.

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